Second Trump and Iraq

Related Tags: Sardar Aziz

Donald Trump’s stormy comeback will affect the US-Iraq relationship in a number of ways. Regarding the second administration, there are generally two schools of thought: one holds that Trump will be different from the first and will rule using consultation and experience. For instance, Project 2025 is now available, unlike previously. The second school makes a different claim. Trump will thus target his enemies and become more vindictive. However, there will be a change in favor of loyalty and unbridled authority for the executive. When they serve the second term, it is customary for the president of the United States to surround himself with yes men. Trump will thus not reinstate the military generals and outsiders with big names as he did previously. He will appreciate loyalty beyond anything else.
Both an uncontested president and anarchy might result from this. It is challenging for anyone to deal with it in both situations. More significantly, it makes power in the US more personalistic and ego driven.

Trump’s return has been received with caution and hope in Iraq and the region. As the PM put it, “We look forward to this new phase as an opportunity to deepen cooperation across various sectors, contributing to sustainable development, and benefiting both our nations.” It is crucial to recognize and focus on the “many sectors” of the relationship that are highlighted in the congratulatory letter.
The United States and Iraq share a number of direct and indirect areas. Nonetheless, both are important. However, one aspect of the new administration that might influence the intricacy of the relationship is the personalization of politics and the presidency. Like in Iraq, American politics will become less institutional and more individualistic. There is a common saying that America is the country of institutions, not personalities; this view will be less accurate during the Trump era. Actually, Trump ran on the basis of opposing the institution. Consequently, choices will be made based on the president’s ego and gut feelings, as well as a small group of advisors. Iraq will not benefit from this since unpredictable things might happen at any time. This makes preparedness difficult. In addition to these, they will affect the other aspect of the relationship.
This is especially concerning since the relationship between Iraq and the US might involve direct attacks on US bases and interests.
When it comes to Iraq, there are two factors that might shape the relationship as a background. First, the problematic relationship between the Iraqi judiciary and Trump; and second, the role of his vice president, in addition to Iran. JD Vance is the first veteran of Iraq or Afghanistan to appear on a presidential ballot. He thinks the war was wrong and sees the world accordingly, as he opposed the passing of a $61 billion aid package to help Ukraine. It is expected JD Vance will have a say in the Iraqi issue, as he has more experience and knowledge about the country than anyone else, including his boss. In a nutshell, Vance won’t favor Iraq. In addition to this, the current regional conflict will impact this personalistic approach, as it is expected Trump will build a strong relationship with the Israeli PM and his radical religious backers.

Potential Implications:
One, if the Democratic administration tried to separate Iraq and Iran files, as they focused on avoiding the rise of tension in the region, Trump might be different. Trump might be pushed by an anti-Iran group to develop the rhetoric and policy of avoiding the “policy of appeasement and accommodation with Iran,” which led to a “failure of deterrence,” because no one believes you have credibility without threat of military force, as the people around Trump believe. This particular stand will be enhanced by the reaction to Biden style and Israeli pressure. This, combined with the madman theory, as Trump is known for, means the new administration might not see Iraq separate from Iran and pressurize Iraq rather than negotiate with it.
Second, Iraq will be pressured to either maintain fractured sovereignty or adopt its own policies and sovereignty. In the latter scenario, the ‘official’ Iraq will find it challenging to get access to and influence among the Trump inner circle. Shinzo Abe, the former prime minister of Japan, demonstrated that influencing Donald Trump requires a significant amount of work to build a personal relationship.
Third, the Trump administration will be occupied by the Ukraine and Israel crises. Both have indirect impacts on Iraq through Iran and Iraqi militias. Through the Russian-American communication, it is expected Putin will be asked to end or weaken its relations with Iran. As the latter is directly part of the war through drones. Depending on where that will go, it impacts Iraq. Iran has alienated Europe by supporting Russia and worsening its relations with the US. If Putin is willing to forsake it, it might remain with few friends, as China is not.
Fourth, Israel wars will have more impact on Iraq. It is expected that the US will back the potential emerging new order in the Middle East, based on weakening Iran and its proxies through Israel and reviving the deal of the century. Iraq cannot separate itself from the Iran axes and cannot join the Abraham deal.
Fifth, Trump’s vice president, DJ Vance, is expected to take over the strategic framework between the United States and Iraq. The entire fields of democratization, climate change, and strengthening Iraq’s position in international organizations would suffer greatly as he will not promote any support for Iraq and instead views it from a blunder point of view.
Indirect implication
First, one of the primary causes of Trump’s reelection was inflation. Trump is attempting to address it by reducing the price of oil in the United States by increasing output. This will affect the price of oil globally, particularly if the conflict between Russia and Ukraine ends and China’s oil consumption reaches a plateau. The Iraqi economy would suffer greatly from a sustained low oil price. Iraq has to prepare for a lower oil price and all its complications.
Second, under the Trump administration, the Strategic Framework Agreement will be ignored. Iraq’s democratization and climate chainages will suffer as a direct result of this. In a time when the two are the most urgently needed. Iraq and other democracies will suffer as a result of Trump’s triumph.
What Iraq can do?
During the Biden administration, Iraq had two political discourses: one official represented ending the US military in the country and starting a new page of long-term strategic relationship, and the other was enmity to the US. Both discourses, despite their disparity, will be difficult and harmful for Iraq to pursue. Political psychology and personalization will be at the heart of the coming administration. In a nutshell, Iraqis should avoid provocation.
Iraqi is in a weak and somehow embarrassing position. Can Iraqi push away certain officials and personnel when they come under the coming administration pressure? If not, the Iraqi political system will be under pressure.
Iraq will have to decide whether to play a constructive role, which may be challenging given that it will be sidelined in the next geopolitical games, or, at best, try to maintain a low profile.
Nevertheless, the Trump administration will have a direct and indirect impact on the 2025 election in Iraq. The US-Iraqi relationship will suffer as a result of that election.